Gozo’s red shift: Can Borg turn the tide?

Once firmly Nationalist, Gozo has become steadily redder over the past decade. Can the PN’s new Gozitan leader reverse the ‘great decline’ and turn the island into a toss-up? asks James Debono

A bellwether district

If there is a district where one can measure the PN’s declining fortunes, it is Gozo—the only district that has retained its territorial integrity in all post-war elections and the only one that switched from a clear PN majority to a PL majority.

Since 2003, the PN has seen its support shrink from 60% to 44% (a 16pp drop), with Labour gaining 14pp—reversing a 20pp gap in the PN’s favour in 2003 into a 10-point lead in 2022. Moreover, while in 2003 the PN’s lead was five times greater than its national lead, by 2022 the gap between the two parties in Gozo (10pp) was much closer to the PL’s national lead (13pp).

These stats alone explain why Gozo is strategically important. Any hope of a PN recovery in the next election depends on a stronger performance in Gozo, in what was once a safe PN district and has now become Malta’s only toss-up district.

Labour’s descent to the margins

Historically, before 2017, the PL had only clinched an absolute majority of votes in Gozo once—in 1955, when the 39-year-old Dom Mintoff snatched an absolute majority of Gozitan votes, electing three of five MPs.

The result, however, was a fluke, followed by a collapse in Labour’s vote. 

The party was nearly wiped out from the conservative island after the imposition of moral sanctions on Labour supporters by the church hierarchy, gaining just 6.3% of the Gozitan vote in the 1962 election and 22% in 1966.

But after the Maltese Church lifted its moral sanctions on Labour activists in 1969, the party managed to double its vote, scoring 44.8% in 1971. Support for the PL was to slip again, reaching a low mark of 41% in the 1981 election, only to surprisingly recover in 1987 when its vote increased from 41% to 46%, while the PN’s vote dropped by five points—a result attributed to the party’s power of incumbency, patronage, and Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici’s popularity in Gozo.

This was one rare case where a surge in support for Labour in Gozo defied the national trend, which saw the PN winning the election with a slim absolute majority amid a tense political climate.

Incumbency and its limits

But after being elected, it was the PN that managed to increase its majority in Gozo by five percentage points from 1987 to 1992, thanks to the economic boom, a recalibration of patronage networks, and the appointment of Gozo’s first minister, the popular Anton Tabone.

The PN’s increase in Gozo corresponded to the national trend, which saw it widening its gap with Labour from a mere 4,000 votes in 1987 to 13,000 nationally five years later.

But following the first signs of economic decline, Labour saw its share of the vote increase by 5% in the 1996 election, mirroring the national trend that saw Alfred Sant becoming PM.

On the other hand, the premature fall of Alfred Sant’s government—during which the Gozo ministry post was removed—saw the party lose three points in Gozo, as the PN was returned to government with the popular Giovanna Debono, known for her strong constituency presence, as Gozo minister.

The 2003 election saw Labour lose a further two points, dipping to 40.8%—its worst result in Gozo since 1992. This corresponded with a strong affirmation of the ‘Yes’ vote in Gozo in the EU referendum.

The red shift begins

The Nationalist decline in Gozo commenced in 2008, with Labour winning 42.9% of the Gozitan vote—an increase of two percentage points over its 2003 tally. In contrast, the PN lost five points between 2003 and 2008 in Gozo. This was a sharper drop for the PN than the 2.5pp national decline. In this case, Labour made stronger gains in Gozo than in Malta as a whole, indicating that the red shift had started before the Muscat era.

Labour was to score its most spectacular result in 55 years just a year after its electoral defeat, when, led by Muscat in the 2009 MEP elections, it scored 48% against the PN’s 47.5%, thus becoming Gozo’s first party.

Yet the PN still clinched a wafer-thin relative majority of votes in 2013, albeit one which saw Labour winning three of the five Gozitan seats. It was only in 2017 that, after five years in power, the PL once again increased its vote to clinch an absolute majority of votes in Gozo. The 2022 election saw Labour consolidating its majority with 53.5%, its best result in post-independence history.

Following—or anticipating—the nation

The historical analysis suggests that a key driver behind voting shifts is incumbency, with both parties tending to consolidate support when in power (as happened in 2013 and 2003). But Gozitans have also tended to follow—and even anticipate—national trends by punishing ruling parties, as was the case in the PN’s drop-in support in 1996, which mirrored the national trend, and in 2008, which anticipated the PN’s meltdown in 2013.

The only exception to this rule was the 1987 election, which saw Labour gaining ground over 1981 during its third term in office. The other exception was the 2022 general election, in which Labour was rewarded in its second term of incumbency.

This suggests that Gozitans also tend to follow national trends in game-changing elections, as was the case in 1996 and 2013.

What is significant is that Labour continued increasing its vote share in subsequent elections in 2017 and 2022, in the same way as the PN had increased its vote share in 1992 and in 2003.

The power of incumbency 

Incumbency plays a greater role in Gozo, since the impact of government is felt more directly than in larger districts. Investment, employment opportunities, and accessibility measures are highly visible and often personalised. But past results show that this is not always the case.

Over the past decade, Labour has leveraged this dynamic effectively, particularly through a strong ministerial presence. It also boasts a strong Gozitan voice in its cabinet.

Figures such as Planning, Gozo and Hunting Minister Clint Camilleri, Agriculture Minister Anton Refalo, and Health Minister Joe Etienne Abela provide Labour with both institutional reach and local visibility. Their portfolios intersect with core Gozitan concerns—reinforcing the perception of delivery.

Labour’s appeasement of hunters and trappers could also be a factor in its inroads in Gozo over the past decade. Surprisingly, Labour’s social liberalism proved to be no impediment in a district which, in 2011, had rejected divorce with an overwhelming majority.

A changing island

Moreover, Gozo is increasingly becoming a less insular and more pluralistic society, where conflicting aspirations co-exist. 

For example, while a substantial number of Gozitan landowners’ profit from Labour’s deregulation in planning, an increasingly vocal cohort laments development and the uglification of the Gozitan skyline.  

One striking fact is that when the new Labour government commenced a reform of local plans in 2013 it received nearly 500 requests to extend the development zone in Gozo.  

But over the years Gozitans like Qala’s PL mayor Paul Buttigieg have gained widespread respect for resisting major ODZ developments.

Moreover, although patronage remains a factor, it increases the frustration of those who are less inserted in these networks.

Navigating these contradictions is increasingly difficult for big tent parties like the PL and PN but third parties still find it difficult to fill the gap, lacking strong reference points in Gozo.

Both parties are torn between these conflicting aspirations, with PN leader Alex Borg struggling to find a balance. As an MP, he voted in favour of the revised arrangement governing Fort Chambray, which included provisions allowing the original concessionaire’s rights and obligations to be transferred to a new consortium that was later granted a permit to demolish parts of the British barracks and relocate its façade. At the same time, the PN is also fielding candidates like Luke Said, who actively support environmental campaigns.

Borg’s ‘wild card’

Still, as the first Gozitan major party leader in recent history, Alex Borg—whose father worked closely with former Gozo Minister Giovanna Debono—introduces a wild card in the forthcoming election that could resonate in a district where identity and personal networks remain important.

Moreover, Gozitans benefitting from current policies are more likely to trust reassurances of continuity given by a fellow Gozitan.

For example, Borg has recently raised concerns about pre-electoral job distribution, while crucially pledging to retain those employed—an attempt to neutralise a key electoral lever. This could also be a pre-emptive strike to neutralise Labour’s power of incumbency on the eve of elections.

Labour on the front foot

What was surprising in the first days of the campaign was that it was Labour which took the initiative by focusing on targeted policy measures aimed at Gozitans. 

Prime Minister Robert Abela has proposed making the Gozo Channel free for foot passengers and increasing the fast ferry grant from €650 to €800. He also promised to increase the Gozo Channel fleet, a commitment that addresses discontent created by the Nikolaos fiasco.

These proposals are strategically calibrated: connectivity remains one of the most salient issues in Gozo, shaping daily life and economic opportunity.

A tough nut to crack

It now remains to be seen whether Gozo will follow past trends, which saw its electorate rewarding the incumbent party, or rarer occasions where Gozitans contributed to—or even anticipated—nationwide shifts.

What is sure is that, judging from what we have seen in the past days, Labour’s hold in Gozo may be a tough nut to crack—even for a Gozitan PN leader.